Since his election win, U.S. President Donald Trump has put a bullseye on China.
From stealing U.S. jobs to manipulating its currency to failing to curb North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, Trump’s accusations against China have come fast and furious. He’s broken with decades of diplomatic practice by questioning the One-China principle, which acknowledges Beijing’s claim to Taiwan
In one of the first policy briefs posted to the new White House website, Trump promised 25 million new jobs over the next decade.
While the plan contains few details, foreign investment can help. Trump recently heaped praise on Jack Ma, founder of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., who suggested he could create as many as 1 million new jobs for U.S. small and medium-sized business owners.
“For him to achieve his domestic aims around jobs and the economy, he’s going to have to figure out how to work with China,” said Paul Haenle, a China adviser to former President George W. Bush and now director of the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy in Beijing
Trump’s tweets have made it clear he expects Chinese President Xi Jinping to do more to stem neighboring North Korea’s nuclear ambitions.
China, North Korea’s biggest trading partner, has more leverage over Kim Jong Un’s regime than any other country. Yet so far, Beijing’s leaders have indicated they fear a nuclear North Korea less than a collapse that would bring the U.S. or its allies to their doorstep — concerns exacerbated by U.S. plans for South Korea to host a missile defense system.
In his inaugural address, Trump promised to eliminate “radical Islamic terrorism” from the globe. That opens the door for cooperation with China, which has sought to quell an independence movement among Muslim Uighurs in its western region of Xinjiang.
Trump has called the Iran nuclear deal one of the worst in U.S. history. But if he wants to renegotiate or withdraw from it, he’ll likely need China’s help to bring Iran back to the table.
Getting Beijing, Iran’s biggest trading partner, to pressure Tehran the first time “took some difficult diplomacy,” said Haenle. If Trump withdraws from the deal, “it will be hard to get China to play the same role they played previously.”
Trump has sought to use China’s core interests like Taiwan as bargaining chips to negotiate a better trade deal. While his administration has provided few details on what it wants in return, Commerce Secretary nominee Wilbur Ross has called for China to reduce subsidies to state-owned enterprises and improve market access for U.S. companies to the nation’s 1.3 billion consumers.
Any deal would only materialize, however, if Trump avoids linking it to interests like Taiwan. “If Trump challenges the One-China policy there will be no deals at all,” said He Weiwen, a former commerce ministry official and senior fellow at the Beijing-based Center for China and Globalization. Right now, “he’s not asking for China’s cooperation — he’s just bashing China all the time.”