The possible coalition scenarios in Jammu and Kashmir
First of all let us put into perspective the certainties.
The Peoples Democratic Party had 21 seats in previous state assembly. This time it may very well be the single largest group in the 87-seat house.
According to current trends, the Bharatiya Janata Party should emerge as a major player in Jammu and Kashmir for the first time since independence. It will most certainly be the second largest party and keeping Art 370 at bay has really paid off.
Omar Abdullah has already lost his Sonawar seat to Mohammad Ashraf Mir. National Conference is very likely to lose badly. He’s fighting it neck to neck Beerwah. None of its stalwarts have had any shining moments in the constituencies this time. The good times for the Abdullahs seem to be getting over.
In all the major players, however, the biggest loser would be the Congress continuing its downward spiral as in the national scene. In the last assembly elections the Congress secured 17 seats and they formed a coalition government with NC which had won 28.
Going by the current trends National Conference would find it difficult to win even 15 seats while the Congress might not even get into double digits.
In the same turn of events the PDP is expected to get over 30 seats. But the prospect of its leader Mufti Muhammad Sayeed becoming chief minister would depend on the higher numbers won by his party now. Sayeed says his party would win as many as 44 seats but even his well-wishers doubt that.
Keeping all this I mind two alliances seem probable.
The most probable alliance – in the eyes of some – would be between PDP and Congress but this will depend entirely of Congress’tally in the evening.
Going by the exit-polls floating around, if PDP manages 35 seats and Congress manages even the lowest double digits, a COALITION is possible here.
Troubles for PDP will start if they manage the 35 mark but Congress slips to less than six.
It largely remains to be seen if the third runner NC would support the BJP.
The BJP has maintained a very non factional image throughout these elections. Going by this prudence the BJP is the main party the PDP or the National Conference should be calculating its alliances with!