If one is to compare the Kashmir scenario of the 1990s with today’s and especially with 2016, one can agree that the stats have shown a slow walk back to normalcy. The current trend is of the youth from within the valley turning to militancy but the numbers are not threatening. The combing operations all through this year have largely been successful and can actually be adjudged a reason why there was less resistance in the removal of bunkers recently from different spots in Kashmir. Here are the six reasons why Militancy will always fail in Kashmir.
A general lack of interest in the larger Indian Muslim population
The valley Muslim population has not been able to incite their anger in the Indian Muslim population. Radical groups in Kashmir has tried inciting anger of the younger locals by educating them with the UN convention, plebiscite and the like. The muslims in the valley are in fact better off than muslims in the country in terms of employment opportunity and general wealth. The Kashmir issue has not and probably will never permeated the Indian Muslim population at large as did the Gujarat Riots.
Terrorism has claimed only lives, not any true victory. The ideological heads promote the idea of martyrdom but many locals have accepted the repeated failure and the heavy losses militancy has left them with.
None of the governments in India were formed on the basis of Kashmir issue or its solution.
The business class in Kashmir keeps silent and wants normalcy, just the way it was before 1989.
No True leader
The one thing Kashmir never found since India’s independence is a leader who worked without personal ambitions. Be it the moderate leadership or the hardliners, Kashmiris have been led by men without a vision that could effectively take the Kashmir issue to its end.
Geelani has found no real successor and the Mirwaiz’ popularity graph has dwindled in the last three years. Geelani does have a true power over the Kashmiris but age and health are not on his side.
Though National conference has a decent following, but NC’s history reeks of concern only for power and many in Kashmir are openly critical of the party’s past and present.
The Hurriyat has only ever incited the anger of the youngsters, but never has it been politically motivated to govern the state to actually control Kashmir. The Hurriyat only ‘prepares and supports’ the youngsters to throw stones on Friday at most and uses the excuse of house arrest to show that they are helpless.
The Rise of Indian Government
By the time the radicals could spread the word, the settlement of Indian government and the army had been facilitated by different political parties in their time. 1989 militancy was difficult to control for over a decade because it was difficult to reach Kashmir due to the lack of connectivity.
Today the Indian government has deep roots in the valley and it will not be wrong to say that commands control there too.
Hundreds of canals of poppy land was destroyed in the valley just days ago. Pakistan has been funding militants through drug money which means sales on a local level but more importantly a vehement rejection by the community which considers drugs ‘Haraam‘. Any Kashmiri today would tell you how drug menace has taken over the youth in the valley, that includes even women.
Opposition from within the community and reduced forums to make a buck through drugs has been a big deterrent.
The war has turned from ground to Social Media
The loss of precious Human life has been heavy and that too fighting a visionless cause. The youth are more educated than ever and understand that their peers lost life without any results. This has actually helped in indoctrinating the younger generation in Kashmir.
For instance, the generation born after the exodus of Kashmiri Pandits firmly believes that Governor Jagmohan was the reason why KPs left. Most of them do not believe anything about the blaring of anti-KP slogans through mosques which was by design an effort to push the non-believers out of the valley.
Omar lost elections and one of the reasons many jokingly quote is his activity only on Twitter. The youth in Kashmir have taken to social media with the mission to change the mindset of the world. This, notwithstanding the fact that they themselves voted the Ex-CM of the state because his social media ‘work’ did not translate on ground for Kashmiris.
Burhan Wani, the latest face of militancy in Kashmir, has stopped using Social Media at present even after he gained massive popularity through social media. The reason was loss of most of his comrades because they had become that easy to track due to their online presence.
Kashmiri terrorists have not grown into an organization
The terrorism in Kashmir has been the guerrilla warfare kind and not in the shape of an organized system which controls things and calls the shots based on their ideology.
Al Qaeda, Boko Haram and Islamic State (ISIS) have been capturing land after land thwarting attempts from the strongest of western nations. These organizations have actually formed small kingdoms of their own and making hay while they can.
The terrorists in Kashmir find asylum in the forests of Kashmir and many have died in the winters due to cold. They do not find a permanent residence for the fear of getting caught and have never thus been able to exercise true power.