The strong message of the Indian PM Narendra Modi, and the bullet for bullet policy adopted by the Indian security forces will help in containing the Pakistani threat on J&K border but it has to be recalled that ceasefire violations on this border occurs in cycles, and are pre-meditated ninety nine percent by Pak army, apart from being guided by local issues such as new officers, new batallions, formations, and the support for infiltration. The timing of the intense firing from Pak side, and an equally strong response both militarily and politically is however going to have a deep impact on the political situation in Jammu and Kashmir. The state which was expected to go to polls in October has already been devastated by the recent floods, and the firing now in Jammu will definitely add to the strong feeling of anti-incumbency which is prevailing in the state. During the floods the NC lead Congress supported government vanished in Kashmir, and remained dysfunctional in Jammu which has lead to widespread anger among the people. However, the fact that this deluge was a natural disaster has also helped in dissipating the disaffection against the National Conference, and also it has negatively affected the strong support which was coming for the Peoples Democratic Party in Srinagar.
The inability of the opposition parties to rally during the flood, and also in the aftermath of the deluge will certainly help the ruling parties. On the border there is anger against the sitting government in state which has failed to help the villagers who have been displaced by the border firing, and it is again the Indian army which has set up camps for people to survive in this onslaught. The people of Jammu voted for the BJP in the Lok Sabha polls, and given the strong stand taken by BJP government against Pakistan it will certainly win the heart of people who have suffered because of border firing, and terror from across the border. If PM Modi is able to outwit Pakistan on the border and manages to either silence the guns through diplomacy or is able to punish the Pakistanis for firing on Indian civilians then definitely his party is going to benefit immensely in the vidhan sabha polls.
The residents of border villages are also happy that India has responded with double the ferocity, and volume of fire which never happened in the past, and it was always the Indian side which raised the white flags. A large number of Jammu residents are also serving the Indian security forces, and posted on border say that they are very happy that government of India has given a free hand to army, and BSF to silent the Pakistanis. In fact reports tell that damage on the Pakistan has been very high, and it has forced the government to order a censorship of the media to ensure that no report of killing or damage on the Pakistani side is reported.
The strong decision taken by the BJP government to take the battle to Pakistan is likely to help the BJP in Jammu province where it managed to win the two Lok Sabha seats thus decimating the rivals. It also won the Lok Sabha seat of Ladakh which is also witnessing increasing number of Chinese incursions, and a strong message to the Chinese will also help BJP in that region but to a lesser extent. The Congress and NC which have roots in Jammu region will also be affected by the strong and prompt decisions taken by the BJP. If Pakistani guns are silenced then the credit will definitely go to the BJP, and Modi as never before Indian security forces have been given a free hand in taking on the enemy.